Jan Ekberg:
Income effects Ur en Ekberg-text på engelska 1996, "Immigration and the public sector: Income effects for the native population in Sweden":
"At the end of the 1970s, the labour market integration among the new immigrants began to deteriorate and since then the tendency has been strengthened. A great number of refugees that arrived during the 1980s never entered the labour market. Not only was the rate of unemployment for the immigrants high but their participation in the labour force was also rather low. Many immigrants have probably given up the idea of searching for work in the labour market.
This has occurred despite the 1980s boom in the Swedish economy and despite the goal for the Swedish immigration policy to integrate immigrants (also refugees) to about the same extent as natives in the labour market. This goal has not been achieved. We do not know all the reasons for this development."
Också denna text gäller år 1991:
"...These investigations indicate that immigrants, as regards age, are overrepresented by 50% in labour market policy measures, by 50% in criminal care and by 10% in alcohol and drug care. The per capita amounts in these areas are increased by these percentages for the immigrants relative to those of the natives."
Bedömningen av hur invandringen ska anses påverka gemensamma offentliga utgifter är svår, här tillämpas två olika metoder parallellt:
"Other public consumption expenditures: These are scarcely related to age distribution. They are to a great extent expenditures on public goods or mixed goods such as defence, basic research, recreation and culture, road systems and general administration. In what respects does a non-marginal population increase imply a more effective use of this kind of public consumption, in what respects does it imply increased expenditures and in what respects are expenditures independent of the size of the population?
We do not know much about that. Therefore, two methods are used. In method 1 we assume that the expenditures increase in proportion to the immigrants' share of the total population. This means that the same amount per individual is used for natives and immigrants. Probably this method overestimates the increase in expenditures as a consequence of immigration. According to the Ministry of Finance (1990) the population increase in Sweden between 1970 and 1990 (about 1.5 million individuals) did not imply more expenditures for defence. In method 2 it is assumed that the expenditures for defence, general administration and the rural road system are not affected by the presence of immigrants. For the rest we assume the same amount per individual for natives and immigrants. The two methods give different results. The real expenditure for immigrants probably lies between these results."
Bidragsberoendet är, genom arbetslöshet, större hos invandrare. Samtidigt gör ålderssammansättningen att de i mindre utsträckning har pension eller behöver anlita sjukvården:
"In view of their share of the total population it is shown that the immigrants are heavily overrepresented in social allowances, housing allowances and unemployment allowances and much underrepresented in pensions. The reason for the former case is their weak employment situation and for the latter case their age distribution. In other public transfer payments the immigrants' share is somewhat higher than their part of the total population. This, is to some extent, due to the large number of children among immigrants which implies rather high amounts for child and parent allowances and to a certain extent to their employment situation, which implies high cash benefits during vocational training. Moreover, immigrants are, to a greater extent, in occupations with a high risk of sickness and injury , which implies rather high amounts for sickness benefits.
The immigrants' share of the total public transfer payments to individuals in 1991 is the same as their share of the total population. The immigrants' part of the total expenditures from the public sector is between 11.0% and 12.2% which is lower than their part of the total population (12.3%). The result is mainly due to their favourable age composition which implies low use of not only old-age pensions but also of health-care and service to pensioners and handicapped. This counter-balances their heavy use of other public expenditures."
Skatteinbetalningarna från invandrare blir låga, dels genom låg sysselsättningsgrad, dels genom låga löner:
"The immigrants' contribution to the public sector is even lower and amounts only to 10.0%. The main reason is the immigrants' low rate of employment. Their contribution is specially low when it comes to direct taxes. The explanation is that income taxes are progressive and that the income distribution among immigrants differs from the distribution among natives. Several studies have shown a relatively low part with high incomes among the immigrants."
Till och med under högkonjunkturen på 1980-talet försämrade invandrarnas deltagande på arbetsmarknaden. Ekberg ställer sig undrande till detta:
"We do not know all the reasons for the deterioration of the employment situation of the immigrants even in the 80s boom. However, we must question the Swedish immigration policy. Have there been any mistakes? For example, have the introductory training programmes and other labour market measures directed to refugees, been adequate with regard to their background and with regard to the transitions in the Swedish economy? Has the immigration policy tended to make the immigrants passive? In the 80s the waiting period to get a permit for asylum seekers increased very much. In some cases it took years between arrival in Sweden and obtaining a permit to stay. The immigrant was not allowed to work during the waiting period. Probably many immigrants lost their competence. The summary is that the goal of equality in the Swedish immigration policy has not been achieved.
How the public sector will redistribute incomes between immigrants and natives in the next 10±20 years depends to a large extent on the development of the employment situation for the immigrants. The age structure of the immigrant population will still be favourable."
Om det skulle bli full sysselsättning även för invandrare i framtiden påverkar det naturligtvis ekonomin gynnsamt:
"If the Swedish economy will return to full employment, for both immigrants and natives, positive income effects for natives will be expected.
In the very long run the outcome will also depend on how the age structure of the immigrant population will change in relation to that of the native population. The immigrant population will grow older and the age structure will come closer to that of the native population. To what extent this will happen is a question of the size and the age structure of the future immigration, return migration and age specific fertility rates and death rates among immigrants."
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